Technical Analysis:
The XAGUSD has been in a strong bullish rally since 2010 hiking from 15$ to almost 50$ this last monday. In the last month, it has gained aproximately 40%. The trend is clearly bullish.
Fundamental Analysis:
The price hike is based on increasing demand by India and China, as well as reduced economic growth on the United States. It waited for the FED speech all day in the 44.80 - 45.70 range, until after the Bernanke intervention when it "took off".Strategies:
Based on the trend, long positions are favored. Regarding the next few days, the value of the positions must be taken into account, due to the percentage of variation in daily value.
The next graphics show the quantity of percentage variations between 01-Jan-2010 and 21-Apr-2011.
These are intra-day variations (Lowest to Highest) and daily gains/losses in value (Open to Close).
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| Graph 1 |
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| Graph 2 |
This analysis shows a very interesting pattern in the last year. It states that even though the most frequent gain is between 0% and 1%, the most usual intra-day variation is between 2% and 3%.
As outliers ("alien" values) are concerned, there once was an 11% intra-day variation, and three losses of over 5% and 9 gains over 5%.
This just reinforces the need to keep a conservative leveraged position.
[Disclaimer]
This article doesn't constitute any advice on investment and the author takes no responsibility for the outcome of orders opened based on the information written here. The reader must take into account his own investment profile and financial capability. Investing in the forex markets can incure in severe losses. 
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